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Dec. 2, 2025, 9:21 PM EST / Updated Dec. 2, 2025, 9:35 PM ESTBy Owen Auston-BabcockRepublican Matt Van Epps has won a hotly contested special election for a deep-red congressional seat in Tennessee, NBC News projects, seeing off a Democratic challenge for the longtime GOP district.Though President Donald Trump carried the 7th Congressional District by 22 points in 2024, Republican super PACs poured millions into defending the seat as Van Epps faced off against Aftyn Behn, a Democratic state representative. Democrats spent almost as much trying to capture it, as Trump’s political standing has taken a hit this year and the Democratic Party made gains in November elections in New Jersey, Virginia and other states.Still, this red district remained Republican. Van Epps, an Army veteran and former state official, ran on reliably MAGA themes and promised to continue the legacy of former GOP Rep. Mark Green, who resigned from the seat earlier this year.But Democrats did significantly cut the GOP margin in the district from just a year ago. With about a sixth of the vote remaining, mostly from Republican-leaning areas, Van Epps had a 5-point districtwide lead.While Behn had an advantage among people who voted early, Van Epps prevailed by running up the score in votes cast on Election Day itself — suggesting Republican efforts to ramp up turnout were successful. National party figures flooded into the district and the two candidates engaged in a fiery, expensive ad war as both sides saw a low-turnout, closer-than-usual race developing.Former Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin canvassed with Behn, who represents part of Nashville in the state House. Trump held telerallies for Van Epps and took to social media to urge Republican voters to turn out, and House Speaker Mike Johnson joined the GOP nominee in the district on Monday.Johnson and Van Epps seemed cautiously optimistic about their chances in an interview with Fox News at a rally in Franklin, Tennessee.“A special election is an odd thing, anything can happen, so we take no vote for granted,” Johnson said, remarking that turnout is “often stifled” when elections don’t fall on the usual second Tuesday of November.In an interview with NBC News in October, ahead of the primary, Van Epps said he was campaigning on “security, opportunity and prosperity” and touted Green’s work with the Trump administration on border security, saying it “serves as a good way to pick up the ball and run with it.” His campaign has also focused on the cost of living, with ads criticizing career politicians for “reckless spending” and saying costs are “out of control.”Republican groups spent over $3.5 million in ads attacking Behn and trying to make Van Epps’ case, according to AdImpact. MAGA Inc., the primary super PAC aligned with Trump’s political operation, spent over $1.7 million in independent expenditures since jumping into the race in mid-November.The super PACs backing Van Epps worked to make Behn unelectable and convince GOP voters to come out to back the Republican against her.Super PACs backing Van Epps and conservative news outlets have used clips of Behn saying she was “a very radical person” and saying she “hates this city,” referring to Nashville. Trump got into the action, attacking Behn on social media and urging Republicans to go to the polls.Democrats hit back in TV, radio and online ads, with House Democrats’ main super PAC spending more than $800,000 and Behn’s campaign spending over $1 million.Behn and Democratic groups supporting her campaign attacked Van Epps in ads for saying he would not have voted for the bill to release files related to the investigation into Jeffrey Epstein, the late financier and convicted sex offender. Trump signed the bill into law on Nov. 21 after doing an about-face on the legislative push.Van Epps, a colonel in the Tennessee Army National Guard, plans to keep his commission while in Congress. He told NBC News in October that he’ll serve where he’s needed by House Republicans but said he’d like to join the House Armed Services Committee, given his background in the military.Owen Auston-BabcockOwen Auston-Babcock is an intern at NBC News.Bridget Bowman contributed.

admin - Latest News - December 3, 2025
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Republican Matt Van Epps has won a hotly contested special election for a deep-red congressional seat in Tennessee, NBC News projects, seeing off a Democratic challenge for the longtime GOP district



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October 13, 2025
Oct. 13, 2025, 5:00 AM EDTBy Adam NoboaNew Jersey delivered some of the nation’s most dramatic coalition shifts in the 2024 presidential election. Now, those shifts are setting the table for this year’s hard-fought governor’s race — and big questions nationally about where communities like these are going in future elections.For starters, President Donald Trump’s 2024 surge among nonwhite voters in the New York City metro area caught much of the political world by surprise. But questions remain about whether Republicans can sustain this coalition long term.An analysis of municipal-level election results in New Jersey, coupled with data from the U.S. Census Bureau, provides a detailed demographic and geographic snapshot of where Democrats and Republicans have grown their support fastest in recent elections. By examining changes since 2012 — the most recent presidential election without Trump on the ballot — a clear picture of shifting party coalitions emerges.Support for Trump has exploded in densely populated, heavily nonwhite, formerly industrial cities like Paterson, Perth Amboy and Passaic in the New York City metro area. Republican growth that was slowly developing since 2012 surged dramatically in 2024.Meanwhile, Democratic candidates have found growing strength in New Jersey’s shore towns, affluent suburbs populated by college-educated professionals, and places popular with retirees.These communities will become crucial laboratories going forward, testing whether this 12-year political realignment can outlast Trump.But the picture will be far from clear, and different political characters often encourage different political results. Republican Jack Ciattarelli’s previous bid for New Jersey governor in 2021 produced a tight race — but he did it with a coalition that looked much different than the one that would emerge for Trump in 2024.The biggest question heading into future elections is whether these shifts represent a durable transformation of state (and national) politics or merely a Trump-specific phenomenon. These communities provide a testing ground for the answer.The biggest shifts toward DemocratsBiggest shifts since 2012More than half of this nearly all-residential beach town of 331 people, located 2 miles south of the final stop on NJ Transit’s Jersey Shore train line, work in finance or management jobs. The population that works from home is also well above the state average: 45% for Mantoloking, compared to 13% statewide. The mean household income was $484,326, and the average sale price of the 10 homes sold in this borough in 2024 was $4.8 million.It’s still Republican territory, but not to nearly the same extent it was pre-Trump, exemplifying shifts among wealthier and more educated voters.This location is perhaps most famous to New Jerseyans for its eponymously named shopping center, The Mall at Short Hills. Originally opened in 1961 with the tagline “5th Avenue in the Suburbs,” the mall and the area around it have grown into that aspirational billing.Today, Short Hills has a mean household income of $512,637, the second highest in the state. Among residents 25 and older, 60% hold advanced degrees, the highest share for any place of its size in the state. Asian residents make up 38% of the population, with half of them being Indian American.Biggest shifts since 2016This is another small beach town, the farthest you can get down the Jersey Shore — at the southern tip of the Jersey peninsula. Nearly all the shops and dining are in the larger Cape May city, 10 minutes to the east, but this mostly residential community has a high population of older individuals, with a median age of 70.9. Home values are $1.4 million, among the top 10 places in South Jersey.Located on the banks of the Delaware River in western New Jersey, Frenchtown is a quaint river town and popular day trip destination known for its art galleries and boutiques. The 70-mile Delaware and Raritan Canal trail, which begins just north of town, is popular with pedestrians and bikers alike. A narrow bridge connects Frenchtown to rural Bucks County, Pennsylvania — itself a perennially important county in Pennsylvania politics.One in 10 residents in Frenchtown are involved in “arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations,” the second highest concentration in the state. (In recent years, “Eat, Pray, Love” author Elizabeth Gilbert lived and owned a store in town.) Among adult residents, 41% are white with college degrees or higher, above the 27% average for New Jersey overall.Biggest shifts since 2020Avalon has long been an affluent shore town: Ed McMahon would often talk up his weekends there on “The Tonight Show with Johnny Carson.” Avalon now has the state’s fifth-oldest population, with a median age of 74.1. The average sale price of a home in Avalon last year was $2.8 million.A retirement community in South Jersey, this planned development was under active buildout from 1971 to 1986. Leisuretowne has grown to 2,255 homes, and the current median age is now 72.5.The biggest shifts toward RepublicansBiggest shifts since 2012This largely industrial neighborhood is tucked underneath the Gov. Alfred E. Driscoll Bridge, one of the widest in the world at 15 lanes. Its accessibility to the Garden State Parkway, I-95 and the Outerbridge Crossing, connecting New Jersey to New York, make this particularly attractive to large distribution-based companies. FedEx hosts a distribution center here, as does Wakefern Food Corp., best known for its ShopRite subsidiary.Once a primarily Polish and Hungarian neighborhood, it has seen the third-highest Latino population growth in the state over the past two decades, going from 38% of the population in 2000 to 71% of the population in 2020. The mean household income here is $91,696, below the statewide figure of $140,299.A brand-new, 5-acre waterfront park opened earlier this year in this compact town on the Passaic River — a major step in revitalizing this industrial area in Newark’s shadow. The Clark Thread Company, once the nation’s largest thread-maker, had a large campus here, with the property as the primary area tagged for redevelopment.Two-thirds of the population in East Newark is Hispanic/Latino. Majorities do not hold U.S. citizenship and speak Spanish at home, according to census data. It has the largest Peruvian population and fifth-largest Ecuadorian population by share in the U.S.Biggest shifts since 2016Home of the sixth-largest Latino population in the state, 73% of Passaic’s 70,000 residents are of Hispanic or Latino origin. Passaic also boasts the state’s largest Mexican population. The high-immigrant town is firmly working-class: 33% of its adult population hasn’t graduated high school, compared to 9% statewide.Heading south from downtown and toward the Passaic Park neighborhood, you will find a large Orthodox Jewish population. While official numbers about religious adherents aren’t kept at the municipal level, Passaic would likely have one of the top populations of Orthodox Jews in New Jersey. The Brook Haven Mall, which bills itself as “largest kosher shopping mall in the U.S.,” opened its doors in 2021, a testament to the size of the Jewish population in the immediate area.New Jersey’s fourth-largest city, Elizabeth is an active transit hub for the New York metropolitan area. The city hosts parts of Newark Liberty International Airport, one of the region’s three major airports, and Port Newark-Elizabeth Marine Terminal, one of the world’s busiest container ports. The Goethals Bridge also links Elizabeth directly to Staten Island, making it a key connector between New Jersey and New York City.Like the population of East Newark, more than half of the population here was not born in the United States, and nearly two-thirds of the residents here are Spanish speakers.Biggest shifts since 2020The unique clay bedrock of Perth Amboy made it a capital of East Coast terra-cotta production at the turn of the 19th century. Terra-cotta-detailed facades decorate buildings around town, and the work of the Perth Amboy Terra Cotta Company became a staple of the elegant skyscrapers built in Manhattan at the time, from the Woolworth Building to the Flatiron Building. The Great Depression caused a sudden evaporation of the terra-cotta industry, and the ensuing decades have reinvented Perth Amboy.The city is now 81% Latino, the third-highest share of any place in the state. Half its Latino population is of Dominican origin, among the highest concentrations anywhere in the country.New Jersey’s third-largest city is a melting pot. It has the largest Dominican population outside New York City and Lawrence, Massachusetts, and its Little Lima neighborhood represents the largest Peruvian population outside of Peru. Paterson’s mayor declared the city the U.S. “capital of Palestine” on account of its large Palestinian population, too, and its broader Muslim population probably accounts for at least a third of the city’s makeup.At the same time, Paterson is a city in transition, with a quarter of its population living in poverty, per census data, and some of the highest crime rates in the state on a per capita basis.Adam NoboaAdam Noboa is a producer at NBC News with Steve Kornacki.
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