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November 28, 2025

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October 29, 2025

Oct. 28, 2025, 7:07 PM EDTBy Abigail Williams, Courtney Kube, Carol E. Lee and Katherine DoyleWASHINGTON — Some of President Donald Trump’s aides have advised him against shifting the U.S. position on independence for Taiwan to favor China, according to four people with knowledge of the discussions, ahead of his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week.The aides have privately expressed concern that Trump, who is pushing to reach a sweeping trade deal with China, may choose to ignore their advice, the people with knowledge of the discussions said. They said they worry that Trump could walk away from long-standing U.S. policy on Taiwan or more subtly shift the U.S. position by framing it with new language.“Everyone is holding their breath,” one of the people with knowledge of the discussions said.Stocks hit record highs over hopes of China trade deal00:47Administration officials have told Trump to expect Xi to seek a public declaration from him that the United States “opposes” Taiwan’s independence, the people with knowledge of the discussions said. Xi has for months pushed for a shift in the U.S. position on Taiwan from the current one, which is that the United States does “not support” its independence, to saying the United States “opposes” it.While many Americans might see that as a different way of saying the same thing, were Trump to say the United States opposes Taiwan’s independence or even that independence is not a good idea at this time, it would send shock waves across Asia and be seen as a huge gift to Xi.Openly expressing opposition to Taiwan’s independence would be seen as moving the United States from a neutral position on the issue to clearly standing on the side of China. For decades, U.S. administrations have adopted a policy of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan, known as the “One China” policy, and presidents have taken the public position of not supporting its independence.A White House official told NBC News: “President Trump has repeatedly affirmed that his Taiwan policy has not changed. President Trump leads on all foreign policy — he always puts forward deals that put the American people first.”Asked what the Trump administration’s policy on Taiwan’s independence was, a senior State Department official said, “The policy on Taiwan hasn’t changed one bit.”“It’s as consistent as it’s been for decades,” the official said Monday.China sees democratic and self-ruled Taiwan as a breakaway province that must be reunited with the mainland by military force if necessary. Taipei rejects Beijing’s claims of sovereignty and seeks to maintain its de facto independence even if it is not formally recognized by most countries.“The Taiwan question is at the core of China’s core interests, and the first red line that cannot be crossed in China-US relations,” Chinese Embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu said by email when he was asked for comment.“There is but one China in the world, Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory. This is a consensus of the international community and a political commitment made by the U.S. to China,” Liu said.Taiwanese officials are also uneasy about the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting and have expressed their own concerns to State Department officials that Trump could abandon Taiwan to secure a win from the meeting, one of the people familiar with the discussions said.Asked by reporters about Taiwan’s apprehension, Secretary of State Marco Rubio brushed the concerns aside.“What people are worried about is we’re going to get some trade deal where we’re going to get favorable treatment on trade in exchange for walking away from Taiwan,” Rubio said Saturday en route to Asia for this week’s meetings. “No one is contemplating that.”Taiwan’s Foreign Affairs Ministry took to social media soon after, expressing its appreciation to Rubio for “reaffirming no one is contemplating walking away from Taiwan.”Abigail Williams, Courtney Kube, Carol E. Lee and Monica Alba reported from Washington and Katherine Doyle from Tokyo.Abigail WilliamsAbigail Williams is a producer and reporter for NBC News covering the State Department.Courtney KubeCourtney Kube is a correspondent covering national security and the military for the NBC News Investigative Unit.Carol E. LeeCarol E. Lee is the Washington managing editor.Katherine DoyleKatherine Doyle is a White House reporter for NBC News. Monica Alba contributed.

November 24, 2025

Nov. 23, 2025, 5:45 AM ESTBy Evan BushThree Category 5 storms, one of the most powerful hurricanes ever recorded, zero U.S. landfalls and a mystifying lull at the usual peak of activity: Together, these and other factors made for a “screwball” hurricane season this year.That’s how atmospheric scientist Phil Klotzbach put it, anyway.“It was just a strange year,” said Klotzbach, who studies hurricanes at Colorado State University. “Kind of a hard year to characterize.”Hurricane season comes to its official close on Nov. 30. In some ways, 2025 fits what researchers expect to see more often as the climate warms: Hurricanes continued forming late into the season and several intensified at extreme rates to produce some of the most intense storms in history.But in other ways, it was simply odd. Fewer hurricanes formed than experts predicted, but almost all of them became major storms. And the continental U.S. was spared a landfall for the first time in a decade. The surprises were a reminder of hurricane season’s unpredictability — particularly in a warming world — even as forecasting gets more accurate.Fewer hurricanes, higher intensityForecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in May predicted an above-average season with six to 10 hurricanes. Of those, at least three were expected to be major storms, meaning Category 3 or above, with sustained winds at or above 111 mph.Klotzbach came up with the same forecast independently, and other hurricane-tracking groups were in the same ballpark.In the end, fewer hurricanes formed, but of the five that did — Erin, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda and Melissa — four were considered major.Hurricane Imelda over Bermuda on Oct. 1.NOAA“That’s the highest ratio there’s been in the past 50 years,” said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science.What’s more, three of those major storms were Category 5, the highest level of intensity.Forecasters’ predictions of an above-average season still proved accurate despite the lower number of storms because of a metric called accumulated cyclone energy — essentially a calculation of the overall intensity and duration of all tropical storms in a season.Klotzbach predicted the accumulated energy would be 125% of the 30-year average. The season ended up at 108%, which, given the low number of hurricanes, means each packed a punch.“It was a quality season, not a quantity season,” he said.Nine of the past 10 Atlantic hurricane seasons have been above normal, according to Klotzbach, who attributes the trend to high ocean temperatures and La Niña, a seasonal circulation pattern that tends to weaken the high-altitude winds that discourage hurricane formation.McNoldy, who closely tracks Atlantic water temperatures, said 2025 was “anomalously warm.”“Whatever storms were out there definitely had a lot of fuel to tap into,” McNoldy said. Ocean heat drives evaporation, causing warm, moist air to rise from the surface to create convection; hurricanes require ocean temperatures of at least 79 degrees Fahrenheit to form.

November 17, 2025

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