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Andrew Cuomo casts ballot in New York

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Andrew Cuomo casts ballot in New York

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Savewith a NBCUniversal ProfileCreate your free profile or log in to save this articleNov. 4, 2025, 5:00 AM EST / Updated Nov. 4, 2025, 10:33 AM ESTBy Steve KornackiThe Donald Trump era has changed American politics for a decade. On Tuesday night, two contentious races for governor will define what the next steps for Republicans and Democrats might look like — not only who will lead Virginia and New Jersey for four years, but how the two parties are appealing to different types of voters and building coalitions for future elections.Republicans have gained ground in those two blue-leaning states since Trump’s heavy losses there in 2020. Tuesday’s elections will show just how durable those advances were, hinging in part on the progress the Republican Party under Trump made with groups that once voted more strongly against the GOP. That especially includes Latino voters, who banked heavily toward Trump in 2024. But Democrats have spent the last year focused on how to reverse those trends, nominating candidates without baggage from the party’s 2024 election loss. And, of course, Trump is now in the White House, which led to voter backlash against him as the incumbent during his first term.Follow live updates on the 2025 electionTune in to live NBC News election night coverage:NBC News NOW, our free streaming service, will be airing an election special beginning at 7 p.m. ET.NBCNews.com and the NBC News app will feature real-time results of all the major races as well as all the latest reporting.NBC News’ podcast, “Here’s the Scoop,” will be livestreaming on YouTube and NBCNews.com beginning around 11 p.m. ET.NBC News’ Chief Data Analyst Steve Kornacki will be at the big board all night, analyzing results and providing minute-by-minute updates exclusively on the NBC News NOW special and the “Here’s the Scoop” livestream.The two states saw similar results in the last presidential election, but the races have gone differently this year. In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger enters Election Day with a clear polling lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. And in New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill holds a smaller advantage in most surveys over Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Here are the places and the trends to watch when the votes get tallied Tuesday night.NEW JERSEYBack in 2020, Joe Biden trounced Trump by 17 points in New Jersey. But Republicans have been seeing steady gains since then.In 2021, Ciattarelli came within just three points of unseating Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy. And last year, Trump lost by less than 6 points, the second-largest improvement he posted anywhere in the country. Both results were better performances — in all of the state’s 21 counties — than Trump in 2020. Crucially, the areas where Trump and Ciattarelli made their biggest strides don’t necessarily overlap. They each tapped into different voters in different places. Ciattarelli made some of his biggest gains in suburban areas with above-average median incomes and higher concentrations of college degrees. Meanwhile, Trump’s largest improvements largely came in areas with heavier Hispanic populations.Where Ciattarelli outperformed TrumpSomerset County is an affluent and historically Republican county filled with New York City bedroom communities. But like many suburban areas around the country, its population has diversified — from 75% white at the turn of the century to barely 50% in the most recent census — and its highly educated voters have reacted with hostility to the Trump-led GOP. George W. Bush carried Somerset in 2004, but Democrats have won it in every presidential election since, with Biden’s 21-point romp in 2020 as their high water mark.In 2021, Ciattarelli came within four points of Murphy — a 17-point improvement over that Trump 2020 performance. Trump didn’t give back all of those gains in 2024, but he did lose significant ground from Ciattarelli’s showing, finishing 14 points behind Kamala Harris. (It helped that Ciattarelli once represented parts of Somerset in the state Legislature.)A key question is whether Ciattarelli can at least replicate that 2021 showing. Four years ago, he benefited from the fact that Biden was in the White House. Many anti-Trump voters were willing to put aside their concerns with the national Republican Party. It turned out they had concerns with the Democrats who were running New Jersey, too, and deemed Ciattarelli an acceptable alternative. But with Trump back in power, will it be different?Within Somerset, Bernards Township (population 27,000) is a great example of these dynamics. It has a median household income that’s nearly twice the statewide average. Two-thirds of its population is white, and more than two-thirds of its white adult population have college degrees, far above the statewide level. As recently as 2012, it was still voting Republican at the presidential level, but Trump’s emergence changed that. He lost it by 14 points in 2020 and only improved a smidge in 2024, when Harris bested him by 11. Ciattarelli, on the other hand, won it by 5. Bernards Township is chock full of exactly the kind of voter Ciattarelli needs to hang on to: the avowedly anti-Trump, affluent suburbanite.Where Trump outperformed CiattarelliPassaic County in North Jersey includes the state’s third-largest city, Paterson, along with a number of densely populated middle-class suburbs and a stretch of rural land and wilderness. It is racially and ethnically diverse: a population that’s about 40% Hispanic and white, just under 10% Black and Asian, and notable Orthodox and Arab American pockets. Bill Clinton broke a string of Republican successes in Passaic when he carried it in his 1996 re-election bid and his party then posted double-digit wins until last year, when Trump flipped it. While Ciattarelli also made sizable strides in 2021, he didn’t make the kinds of inroads Trump did in the county’s largest and least white municipalities: Paterson and Passaic city. In Paterson, which is two-thirds Hispanic and less than 10% white, Ciattarelli lost by 71 points in his 2021 campaign, around what the typical margin of defeat for a Republican in the city had long been. But Trump finished only 28 points behind Harris last year. He did this by demonstrating significant new appeal in heavily Hispanic areas and by posting improvements in heavily Arab American South Paterson, where voters seemed to cast protest votes either for Trump or Green Party candidate Jill Stein. With 70,000 residents, Passaic city is about half the size of Paterson, but it’s also overwhelmingly (75%) Hispanic. In 2024, Trump carried the city by 6 points after Ciattarelli lost it by 40 in 2021.This was a trend seen across the state. Trump’s biggest gains from 2020 — and his biggest overperformances relative to Ciattarelli — tended to come from areas with sizable Hispanic populations. Ciattarelli’s inability to make even remotely similar inroads four years ago casts doubt on whether he can add these voters to his coalition this year. Certainly, his campaign hopes that Trump will serve as a gateway to the broader Republican Party for them. But it also appears that many were first-time voters or voters who don’t normally participate in non-presidential elections. If Ciattarelli can fold in some of these new Trump voters, he’ll be taking a major step toward victory. Short of winning over new votes in Paterson and Passaic city, Ciattarelli will have to hope that turnout is low. This was the case in 2021, when turnout plummeted in many heavily Democratic urban areas around the state. Take Paterson, where turnout in 2021 was just 35% of the level it had been in the 2020 presidential race — compared to the statewide average of 57%. Reasserting their dominance in cities like Paterson while also beefing up turnout is a major priority for Sherrill this year.VIRGINIAIn 2024, Trump lost Virginia by just under 6 points, an improvement from his 10-point defeat in four years earlier. In a way, the result amounted to a tale of two different elections in the same state.In the Washington, D.C., suburbs and exurbs of Northern Virginia, Trump made big strides, particularly in areas with significant Hispanic and Asian American populations. Had these gains extended across the state, he might have actually put Virginia in play, but outside of northern Virginia his progress was spotty at best, and he even backtracked in some areas.The counties and cities that comprise Northern Virginia account for about one-third of all votes statewide. The growing and diversifying populations here are the primary source of Virginia’s evolution into a blue state — but those same places also drove Trump’s Northern Virginia improvement in 2024.Building on 2021 gainsIn reducing his deficit, Trump locked in many — but not all — of the gains that Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin made in these same places in his victorious 2021 gubernatorial campaign. For example, in sprawling Loudoun County, which accounts for 5% of all votes cast statewide, Youngkin lost by 11 points in 2021, and Trump lost by 16 points last year. Both represent big jumps from Trump’s 25-point loss in 2020.Trump did this in part by building support with Latino voters, as he did nationally. Case in point: Sterling has the highest concentration of Latino residents (50%) of any census-designated place in Loudoun County. Trump lost Sterling by 19 points to Harris after getting crushed by 44 against Biden in 2020.Notably, this is one place where Trump outperformed Youngkin, who lost it by 24 in his own campaign. For Earle-Sears, building on this momentum is essential.GOP improvements in Loudoun are also rooted in local politics, especially contentious disputes over education standards and school policies over the last half-decade. In particular, gains by both Youngkin and Trump with Asian American voters seem tied to these battles.Earle-Sears is seeking to capitalize the same way. This makes majority-Asian Loudoun Valley Estates worth watching closely. A development community of about 10,000, its median income and college attainment rate are both far above the state average. In 2020, Loudoun Valley Estates sided with Biden by 43 points. Youngkin cut that to a 28-point Democratic margin a year later, and Trump brought it down five points further last year.It will be a solid barometer of whether Earle-Sears has tapped into the same currents that boosted Youngkin and Trump in Loudoun and across northern Virginia. There are similar dynamics in suburban Prince William County, another population juggernaut that accounts for 5% of all votes statewide. With a white population of around 40%, Prince William is more diverse and slightly more Democratic than Loudoun. Trump lost by 27 points there in 2020, a margin that both he and Youngkin reduced by about 10 points in 2021 and 2024.Then there’s the geographically compact city of Manassas Park, which has just over 16,000 residents, almost half of whom are Hispanic — the highest concentration of any county or independent city in Virginia. Trump cut his deficit there from 33 points in 2020 to 20 points last year.Where to watch beyond Northern VirginiaMoving away from Northern Virginia, two major population centers stand out for their willingness to embrace Youngkin — and their refusal to do the same for Trump last year.One is Chesterfield County, which takes in the suburbs to the south of Richmond. With 365,000 residents, it’s the fourth-largest county in the state, and the biggest outside of Northern Virginia.These were staunchly Republican suburbs from the end of World War II on, but a gradual shift away from the GOP exploded with the emergence of Trump. In 2016, he carried Chesterfield by 2 points, the worst showing for a Republican since Thomas Dewey in 1948. By 2020, it had flipped completely and Trump lost it by 7 points. And last year, it was the rare county in America that actually got bluer, with Harris pushing the margin to 9 points.Chesterfield is racially diverse and has one of the largest Black populations in the state. Notably, though, a precinct-level analysis finds that Trump actually improved his performance in predominantly Black parts of the county; it was in largely white and high-educated precincts that he continued to lose ground:A major reason why Youngkin is governor today is that he managed to roll back these Trump-era Democratic inroads, beating Democrat Terry McAuliffe by 5 points in Chesterfield. His campaign kept Trump at arm’s length and was no doubt helped by the fact that Trump was a former president in 2021, with the White House then occupied instead by an unpopular Democrat in Biden. Now, with polls indicating there’s been no growth in Trump’s popularity over the last year, it figures to be tougher for Earle-Sears to connect with these voters. Democrats are banking on a backlash against Trump, and Chesterfield looms as a test of whether they are right to.The biggest bellwether in the state may be the independent city of Virginia Beach, which has about 460,000 residents. For years, a large Navy presence helped make Virginia Beach one of the most Republican-friendly big cities in the country, but as it has continued to grow and diversify, it has tipped into the Democratic column. In 2020, Biden became the first Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson to carry Virginia Beach, taking it by 5 points. Flipping it back was a priority for Republicans as they sought to make Virginia a battleground state last year, but Harris managed to hang on to it by 3 points.The story was different in the last governor’s race, though, with Youngkin winning Virginia Beach by 8 points. As with Chesterfield, the question is whether Trump’s return to the White House will make it all but impossible for the GOP to replicate that 2021 roadmap this year.Steve KornackiSteve Kornacki is the chief data analyst for NBC News.

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Nov. 20, 2025, 6:36 PM ESTBy Michael KosnarIn just 24 hours, the Justice Department has done a complete reversal on its position about whether the full grand jury in the James Comey criminal case reviewed the indictment before it was handed up to a federal judge in September.Lindsey Halligan, the acting U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia, presented the case by herself to the grand jury on Sept. 25. She testified Wednesday that when jurors voted to indict Comey on two of the three counts submitted in the original indictment, the full grand jury hadn’t reviewed a final revised document showing the two counts the former FBI director was charged with. Instead, its viewing was limited to the jury foreperson and an additional grand juror.Assistant U.S. Attorney Tyler Lemons, who is leading the prosecution of Comey, also said the full grand jury hadn’t reviewed the final indictment.Justice Department admits not all grand jury members saw final Comey indictment02:49But in a court filing Thursday titled “Government’s Notice Correcting the Record,” federal prosecutors said the full grand jury did review the final indictment. In doing so, the Justice Department disputed the argument by Comey’s defense team that the indictment was invalid because of the missteps acknowledged in court Wednesday.“The official transcript of the September 25, 2025, proceedings before Magistrate Judge Vaala conclusively refutes that claim,” prosecutors said in Thursday’s filing. Judge Lindsey Vaala presided over the filing of Comey’s indictment.The defense team argued at Wednesday’s hearing that the confusion over the grand jury issue required the judge to throw out the case.Comey was indicted in September on charges of lying to Congress relating to Senate testimony he gave in 2020. He has pleaded not guilty.Lindsey Halligan, then an attorney for President Donald Trump, in the Oval Office of the White House on March 31.Al Drago / Getty Images fileThe hearing Wednesday focused on the defense’s motion to dismiss the case on the grounds that it is a vindictive and selective prosecution.Halligan, Trump’s former personal attorney, who has no experience in criminal matters, lashed out at U.S. District Judge Michael Nachmanoff, who is overseeing the case, after he questioned whether the defense’s position was that Halligan was serving as a “puppet” or a “stalking horse” for Trump and his demands for retribution against perceived enemies like Comey.In a highly unusual move, Halligan released a statement Thursday criticizing the judge.“Personal attacks — like Judge Nachmanoff referring to me as a ‘puppet’ — don’t change the facts or the law,” she said. “The Judicial Canons require judges to be ‘patient, dignified, respectful, and courteous to litigants, jurors, witnesses, lawyers, and others with whom the judge deals in an official capacity’ … and to ‘act at all times in a manner that promotes public confidence in the integrity and impartiality of the judiciary.’ My focus remains on the record and the law, and I will continue to fulfill my responsibilities with professionalism.”Justice Department spokesperson Chad Gilmartin also attacked Nachmanoff.“A federal judge should be neutral and impartial. Instead, this judge launched an outrageous and unprofessional personal attack yesterday in open court against US Attorney Lindsey Halligan,” Gilmartin said on X. “DOJ will continue to follow the facts and the law.” Michael KosnarMichael Kosnar is the Justice Department Producer for NBC News.

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Oct. 24, 2025, 5:30 AM EDTBy Steve Kopack and Rob WileThe Bureau of Labor Statistics is slated to publish September inflation data on Friday morning, in spite of a government shutdown that has paralyzed federal reporting and has no end in sight. The Consumer Price Index for September will be released at precisely 8:30 a.m. ET and will mark the first time a major economic report has been issued since the shutdown began Oct. 1.Economists surveyed by Dow Jones and Bloomberg expect the overall annual inflation rate to rise to 3.1% for the 12 months ending in September.Month over month, that would be the same stubborn pace that has persisted for more than two years. An inflation rate north of 3% is also significantly higher than the Federal Reserve’s target annual rate of 2%.Earnings have also continued to climb along with prices, hitting a new post-pandemic high in the second quarter of this year.But for consumers, higher wages on paper do not appear to have eased the sting of rising prices, according to several recent surveys.Prices and inflation edged out tariffs to become consumers’ most reported concerns in the Conference Board research group’s September survey. The University of Michigan’s closely watched surveys found overall consumer sentiment in October was down 22% from the same month a year ago.On Wall Street and Main Street, the Trump administration’s global trade and tariffs policy continues to loom large. “We continue to expect tariffs to remain a source of goods price inflation over the next few quarters,” economists with Bank of America wrote in a client note earlier this week. They also predicted that a decline in used-car prices would dent the overall pace of inflation that shows up in Friday’s report.Analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote that they expect “an acceleration in headline inflation, largely driven by higher seasonally adjusted gasoline prices.” They also anticipate that “food inflation will remain elevated,” according to a client note. Whatever the CPI data reveals, many analysts expect it to have an outsized impact on U.S. markets because it lands in the middle of a weeks long blackout on government economic data. It also arrives less than a week before the Fed’s policy meeting Oct. 28-29. There, committee members will discuss whether to lower interest rates again, which they are widely expected to do. The latest CPI data will help to inform the Fed’s assessment of the U.S. economy. It will also prove a key factor in determining the Social Security Administration’s annual cost-of-living adjustment for 2026, known as the COLA. Inflation data from July, August and September specifically are used as benchmarks to help set the COLA for the coming year. Like the CPI data, the Social Security Administration had initially planned to release the 2026 COLA in mid-October, but it was delayed by the government shutdown. Steve KopackSteve Kopack is a senior reporter at NBC News covering business and the economy.Rob WileRob Wile is a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist covering breaking business stories for NBCNews.com.

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