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Kornacki: How Mamdani could get 50% of the vote

admin - Latest News - November 5, 2025
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Steve Kornacki looks at how results in the NYC mayoral race compare to recent polls following Zohran Mamdani’s projected win.



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Nov. 4, 2025, 9:00 PM EST / Updated Nov. 4, 2025, 10:05 PM ESTBy Alexandra MarquezMaine will soon become the 22nd state to have an “extreme risk protection” gun law, also known as a “red flag law,” NBC News projects — part of a slew of state ballot measures voters around the country considered on Tuesday.Maine voters on Tuesday passed a ballot question that will allow individuals to petition courts to have firearms taken away from their family members if they are deemed to pose a risk to themselves or others.The ballot measure was opposed by a bipartisan group of state leaders, including Democratic Gov. Janet Mills and top Republicans in the state Legislature. They pointed to a law already in effect in Maine, known as a “yellow flag law,” that allows members of law enforcement to petition courts to temporarily confiscate an individual’s firearms if they’re deemed to be a danger to themselves or others.The yellow flag law already in effect also requires law enforcement officers to bring individuals into protective custody and obtain a behavioral health assessment before they can petition for the confiscation of firearms.This new red flag law eliminates the need for a behavioral health assessment and allows family members to petition for firearm confiscation without consulting law enforcement officers.Proponents of the ballot measure, including the leaders behind the state’s “Safe Schools, Safe Communities” initiative, have said that their proposal ensures that due process is protected because anyone seeking an extreme risk protection order must present sworn evidence in court and cannot make up evidence.Opponents of the ballot measure, including Mills, have said that the court process could be burdensome for family members and could infringe on due process protections.“If there is a potentially dangerous situation, I want the police involved as soon as possible because it’s their responsibility, not yours, to deal with dangerous people,” Mills told voters in September.She also pointed to the number of successful court petitions — over 1,000 — that have given the go-ahead to confiscate firearms from individuals since the yellow flag law passed.“Look, if I thought Question 2 were good public policy, I’d be the first to support it — but Maine’s current gun safety law is one of the most effective laws of its kind in the nation, carefully drafted to be constitutional. It has resulted in more than 1,100 court orders to remove weapons, far more compared to most other states that have so-called red flag laws,” Mills said. “Our Maine law is successfully saving lives every day, and that’s why I ask people to reject Question 2 at the ballot box.”Four other New England states already have such laws: Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Connecticut.Maine Question 1In a separate measure, voters in Maine rejected a ballot question that would have imposed sweeping changes to Maine’s election laws, NBC News projects, including instituting new voter ID laws and modifying existing laws governing absentee voting.Democratic leaders including Mills spoke out in recent weeks against the ballot measure, saying it would have made it harder for Maine citizens to vote.In a post on X earlier Tuesday, Mills posted photos of her voting and wrote, “If you’re an older Mainer or a single parent, someone with a disability, or someone with a busy schedule, Question 1 would only make it harder for you to cast your vote. That’s why I voted no on Question 1 today!”Mills’ opponent in next year’s Democratic Senate primary, veteran Graham Platner, also opposed Question 1 in the weeks leading up to Election Day.After the ballot measure was projected to be defeated on Tuesday night, he wrote in a post on X, “This victory belongs to the thousands of volunteers, many of them with our campaign, who left it all on the field to save absentee voting in Maine.” Beyond the voter ID requirement, the ballot question, if passed, would have made changes to absentee voting laws, including the repeal of a measure that allowed voters to drop off ballots for their immediate family members. The new provision would have also put an end to automatic absentee voting, which allows some voters to have absentee ballots mailed to them automatically each election cycle.Another major change that was included would have allowed municipalities just one absentee ballot drop box for future elections, instead of multiple drop boxes. Opponents of the ballot measure specifically pointed to this provision, saying it would have made it harder for Maine citizens living in rural areas to vote via absentee ballot.“Our elections are already safe, secure, and trustworthy. Let’s not make it harder for Maine people to exercise that important freedom,” Mills told her constituents in October when she called for them to reject the ballot question.Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, who is facing a tough re-election fight next year, did not weigh in on the measure, telling voters at an event in Portland last month that she needed to “look at the specifics” of the measure and how it might impact elderly voters.Texas ballot questionsTexas voters approved two state constitutional amendments in statewide votes, NBC News projects. The ballot measures amend Texas’ constitution to clarify that only U.S. citizens can vote in the state and to enshrine parental rights.Follow the election live hereProponents of the ballot measure say that parental rights are already guaranteed in Texas because of existing case law, but a constitutional amendment will ensure parental rights are observed even if case law changes in the future.“Over the last 100 years, federal case law has outlined specific areas in which parents have a constitutionally protected right to make decisions for their children. However, rights found in case law can change and disappear over time with the appointment of new judges. Placing the rights of parents in the Texas constitution would ensure the longevity of these rights for future generations,” GOP state Sen. Bryan Hughes, a sponsor of the measure, wrote as part of a bill analysis.The measure approved on Tuesday will add language to the state constitution that says, “the people of Texas hereby affirm that a parent has the responsibility to nurture and protect the parent’s child and the corresponding fundamental right to exercise care, custody, and control of the parent’s child, including the right to make decisions concerning the child’s upbringing.”Opponents of the ballot measure, including education and reproductive rights groups, have called the measure “unnecessary,” and “dangerous.” They say the constitutional language could later be used to justify restrictions on information children can access regarding mental health care and reproductive health care. Other opponents called the measure “vague.”On the voting measure, even before its passage, only U.S. citizens could vote in the state of Texas, leading opponents of the measure to call it “redundant,” while proponents of the measure said it will ensure local municipalities cannot allow non-citizens to vote in local elections in the future.The measure’s sponsor in the Texas legislature, GOP state Sen. Brian Birdwell, pointed to other states, like California, Maryland, New York, and Vermont, where non-citizen residents are authorized to vote in some local elections, like school board or city council elections.“The right to vote is sacred, guaranteed by the United States Constitution. With other states allowing their local governments to implement a voting mechanism to allow non-citizens to vote, Texas should proactively amend the constitution to ensure that Texas municipalities cannot implement such policies should statute change,” Birdwell wrote as part of a bill analysis in the state Senate. “In efforts to preserve the integrity of all elections, maintaining that only citizens have the right to vote will create additional safeguards to keep our Texas elections secure,” he added.The measure won support from GOP Gov. Greg Abbott, who told voters in a post on X earlier this year that the ballot measure, “makes it crystal clear that if you are not a United States citizen, you’re not allowed to vote in Texas.”Alexandra MarquezAlexandra Marquez is a politics reporter for NBC News.
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Oct. 22, 2025, 5:24 AM EDT / Updated Oct. 22, 2025, 5:35 AM EDTBy Alexander Smith and Daryna MayerJust hours after President Donald Trump said peace talks with Russia’s Vladimir Putin were on hold to avoid wasting his time, the Kremlin launched intense overnight strikes that killed at least six people in Ukraine.Ukrainian officials said the Russian attacks on Kyiv and other cities were the latest proof that Putin was not ready for peace and merely wanted to use negotiations to drag out the war.Asked about Trump’s remarks, the Kremlin said Wednesday that neither president wanted to waste time — and cautioned that any meeting would require further “preparation.”Two children were among those killed in the overnight strikes on the Ukrainian capital and other cities, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a post. In total over the past 24 hours, at least 13 people were killed and dozens others injured in Russian attacks across Ukraine, according to local officials.An apartment building damaged by a drone strike in Zaporizhzhia, southern Ukraine, on Wednesday.Stringer / ReutersAs in previous years, when the frigid months are about to bite, Russia has targeted energy facilities in an attempt to put Ukrainians in the cold and dark.“Another night proving that Russia does not feel enough pressure for dragging out the war,” Zelenskyy said. He called on Western allies to supply Ukraine with long-range missiles capable of striking deeper into Russia, saying that Moscow had been emboldened to up its attacks by Kyiv’s current lack of such capabilities.“Russia continues to do everything to weasel out of diplomacy,” he said in his nightly address. “The greater Ukraine’s long-range reach, the greater Russia’s willingness to end the war.”A firefighter works at the site of a Russian strike in Zaporizhzhia.State Emergency Service Of Ukraine In Zaporizhzhia Region / via ReutersThe attacks came after Trump confirmed his much anticipated meeting with Putin in Hungary had been shelved.“I don’t want to have a wasted meeting; I don’t want to have a waste of time,” Trump said, adding that he would “see what happens” as events played out.Asked about Trump’s comments Wednesday, Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that neither Trump nor Putin “wants to waste time.” He called them “two presidents who are accustomed to working effectively and efficiently, but effectiveness always requires preparation.”The American president’s remarks came after Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reasserted Tuesday that Russia opposed an immediate ceasefire before talks begin.”This is the basic difference which is existing now between Russia and the United States,” Andrei Fedorov, former deputy foreign minister of Russia, told NBC News in an interview in Moscow on Wednesday.Putin and his team have not shifted publicly during these talks about talks, insisting on hardline demands and balking at the insistence from Kyiv and its European allies to halt fighting along current lines before conducting deeper negotiations.Trump this week echoed that European position.Though Trump has claimed victories in helping calm other global conflicts, Ukraine — a war he once said he could solve in 24 hours — has so far proved more difficult. He has variously sought to strongarm Zelenskyy and Putin with few tangible results.Trump essentially pressed pause on his latest effort, believing both sides in the conflict were not ready to seriously talk peace, after he was briefed on a “productive” call between Lavrov and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a senior White House official told NBC News. The Kremlin insisted it wanted to adhere to what it said was agreed in Alaska between Trump and Putin.Jae C. Hong / APDespite this, the would-be host of the Trump-Putin summit said it could still happen.Viktor Orban, Hungary’s Prime Minister who is a long-time ally of Trump’s and has warm relations with Putin, said that his ambassador in Washington was still working on the meeting.”Preparations for the peace summit continue,” Orban wrote on Facebook. “The date is still uncertain. When the time comes, we will organize it.”Alexander SmithAlexander Smith is a senior reporter for NBC News Digital based in London.Daryna MayerDaryna Mayer is an NBC News producer and reporter based in Kyiv, Ukraine.Keir Simmons and Natasha Lebedeva contributed.
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