The new NFL season is only 17 days old, but for nearly a third of the league, it may already be time to playoff panic.
That’s the predicament facing the 10 remaining winless teams entering Week 3 — because NFL history suggests that starting 0-3 means your playoff ambitions might as well be, well, history.
The Miami Dolphins are already 0-3 following a loss Thursday. Either the 0-2 Kansas City Chiefs or the 0-2 New York Giants, who face each other in prime time Sunday, are all but guaranteed to join them. The ranks of the league’s winless also include the New York Jets, the Cleveland Browns, the Houston Texans, the Tennessee Titans, the Chicago Bears, the New Orleans Saints and the Carolina Panthers.
That’s a problem for any of those teams harboring playoff ambitions, because in NFL history, only six teams have ever lost their first three games and still made the postseason, according to NBC Sports research:
- 2018 Texans
- 1998 Bills
- 1995 Lions
- 1992 Chargers
- 1982 Buccaneers
- 1981 Jets
Last season, Cincinnati came close to becoming only the second team this century to pull off such a comeback after having started 0-3, and 1-4, only to remain in playoff contention until the final week. Yet not even having the NFL leader in passing yards and touchdowns (Joe Burrow) and the only receiver in NFL history to record at least 100 catches, 1,700 yards and 17 touchdowns (Ja’Marr Chase) could push the Bengals into the postseason in the end.
That’s a grim history lesson for those that enter Sunday still winless — particularly the two most surprising 0-2 teams thus far, Kansas City and Houston.
The Chiefs’ current streak of 10 consecutive playoff appearances is the second longest of all time, trailing only New England’s record of 11 straight. In the preseason, oddsmakers pegged the over-under for Kansas City’s win total at 11½, tied with Buffalo, Philadelphia and Baltimore for the league high, according to the sports betting outlet Covers.
Now, the Chiefs are 0-2 for the first time since 2014, the last time they missed the playoffs, and coach Andy Reid is trying to avoid his first 0-3 start since 1999 — his first season as a head coach.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes isn’t used to losing; his 89 wins in the regular season and 17 postseason wins are the most by any quarterback before he turned 30. Kansas City won Super Bowls in 2019 and 2022 behind an offense that was among the NFL’s most explosive; it won another in 2023, and played for another title in February, by being exceptionally good in close games.
Those trends haven’t applied during the new season. Kansas City has scored four total offensive touchdowns, tied for fifth fewest in the league, while its Week 1 loss snapped a 17-game winning streak in one-score games, and the following week it again couldn’t close out a tight game, losing by three.
Houston’s over-under was a healthy 9.5, one win higher than the Bears and the Dolphins. So far it has scored only two offensive touchdowns, as quarterback C.J. Stroud continues to struggle to replicate his sensational rookie season of 2023.
Bettors believe most in the Chiefs and the Texans to turn things around, giving them the best odds among the winless teams to still make the playoffs, per Covers.
How did the rest of these teams put themselves in jeopardy to fall to 0-3? Poor starts have regularly forced Carolina, Cleveland, Miami, Kansas City, the Giants, New Orleans and Houston to play catch-up while averaging fewer than 10 points in the first half. Tennessee, Miami, Houston and the Jets have allowed their quarterbacks to be sacked at some of the league’s highest rates. There’s another clear through line, too: Of the 14 defenses that have allowed the most points, nine belong to winless teams.
Teams need only look at the examples last season of Denver, Baltimore and the Los Angeles Rams, which all started 0-2 but made the postseason, for optimism that a poor start doesn’t necessarily doom a season.
But if a turnaround is to happen, history says this is the week for it to begin.
What we’re watching for in Week 3:
Green Bay (2-0) at Cleveland (0-2): The Packers have two streaks on the line. They’ve won seven consecutive games against AFC teams, while running back Josh Jacobs has rushed for a touchdown in 11 straight games. The last time a player did it in 12 in a row came in 2004.
Indianapolis (2-0) at Tennessee (0-2): No. 1 draft pick Cam Ward has already been sacked 11 times. The Colts have yet to turn the ball over.
Cincinnati (2-0) at Minnesota (1-1): Attrition has forced backup quarterbacks into starting roles, including for both these teams. Since 2020, the Bengals are 6-8 when starter Joe Burrow hasn’t played.
Pittsburgh (1-1) at New England (1-1): With one more touchdown pass, Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers, who has 508 all time, will pass Brett Favre for fourth in NFL history.
Rams (2-0) at Philadelphia (2-0): Can the Eagles cover Puka Nacua? His five catches of 20-plus yards are tied for the league high.
Jets (0-2) at Tampa Bay (2-0): Tampa hasn’t started 3-0 since 2005. It’s in position to stay unbeaten after it became the first team since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger to open the season with back-to-back wins by scoring the go-ahead touchdown in the final minute, per NBC Sports research.
Las Vegas (1-1) at Washington (1-1): Raiders QB Geno Smith has already thrown four interceptions, and in a Week 2 loss he was 0-for-10 on passes longer than 10 yards.
Atlanta (1-1) at Carolina (0-2): The Panthers’ defense has the fewest sacks in the league, just one.
Houston (0-2) at Jacksonville (1-1): Two-way Jaguars rookie Travis Hunter has played 61% of his team’s offensive snaps and 37% of the defensive snaps.
Denver (1-1) at Chargers (2-0): The last time the Chargers started 3-0 was in 2002. A win would also make them 3-0 in their division, something the franchise hasn’t done since 1996.
New Orleans (0-2) at Seattle (1-1): Which struggle will come to an end? Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler is 0-8 in his career. Meanwhile, Seattle has won just one of its last seven home games.
Dallas (1-1) at Chicago (0-2): Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey, whose field goals pushed his team to overtime and then a win in Week 2, has tied the NFL record for most field goals of 60-plus yards, with four.
Arizona (2-0) at San Francisco (2-0): The last two times the 49ers started 3-0 — 2019 and 2023 — they went on to make the Super Bowl.
Kansas City (0-2) at New York (0-2): Patrick Mahomes can pass Peyton Manning for the most touchdown passes through a player’s first nine seasons, including the postseason, with one more score against the Giants, per NFL research.
Detroit (1-1) at Baltimore (1-1) (Monday): Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson and Lions QB Jared Goff each rank in the top four of quarterback rating.
