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September 26, 2025

Sept. 26, 2025, 11:24 AM EDTBy Rob Wile and Steve KopackAnalysts are already warning that U.S. consumers could see higher prices due to new tariffs President Donald Trump plans to impose on drug product imports as soon as next week.But a series of exemptions may blunt the ultimate impact. In a Truth Social post late Thursday, Trump said that any branded or patented pharmaceutical products brought into the U.S. would face a 100% tariff starting Oct. 1.U.S. imports of pharmaceuticals totaled about $213 billion in 2024, a threefold increase from a decade earlier, according to data from the United Nations Comtrade Database.With Asia alone accounting for just over 20% of those imports by value, U.S. consumers could see a “meaningful commercial hit,” Louise Loo, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics research group, said in a note to clients. Previous studies have shown that U.S. annual spending per capita on prescription drugs is about double the rest of the developed world. In July, Trump announced a plan to “get Americans the best prices in the world for prescription drugs” that involved asking major drugmakers to match low prices they offer elsewhere in the world. However, it is not clear what actions the pharma firms have taken to begin addressing that demand. The pharmaceutical industry is already warning that the new tariffs could derail further drug development while also raising prices. “Every dollar spent on tariffs is a dollar that cannot be invested in American manufacturing or the development of future treatments and cures,” Alex Schriver, senior vice president for PhRMA, the drug industry’s primary lobbying group, said in a statement. “Medicines have historically been exempt from tariffs because they raise costs and could lead to shortages.”Despite those warnings, a significant share of drug products could wind up being exempted from the new import duties. The tariffs do not appear to apply to so-called generic drugs, which account for 9 out of 10 prescriptions filled in the U.S., according to the Food and Drug Administration. The White House did not immediately respond to a request to confirm the exemption for generics, but assuming they will remain tariff-free, the impact to consumers could be more limited than feared. Trump also specified that any drug companies that currently have, or have committed to building, U.S.-based drug-making facilities would be exempted from tariffs. That’s a category that includes numerous major drugmakers. “Many pharmaceutical companies have facilities in the U.S., so it may be relatively easy to superficially expand those facilities to avoid tariffs being applied,” Paul Donovan, chief global economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a note to clients. Analysts at JPMorgan agreed: “While there remains very limited details, we note that this will likely lead to a majority of pharma products being excluded from any tariffs” because most major companies have recently increased or have started to increase their U.S. manufacturing facilities.On the White House website, the administration maintains a “running list of new U.S. investment” from private companies. At least 15 pharmaceutical or drug makers are listed with investments ranging from new manufacturing facilities, tens of billions in expanded U.S. production and increased R&D spending. Many of those announcements would appear to meet the requirements laid out by Trump to avoid the new tariff.Two major European drugmakers, Roche and Novartis, said in statements that they expected little to no impact from the newly announced duties. “We are working to ensure that all major Novartis medicines for U.S. patients are manufactured in the U.S.,” Novartis said in a statement. “The announced 100% tariff should not have an impact.” Roche pointed to ongoing factory construction in the U.S., with multiple sites being expanded and upgraded in Kentucky, Indiana, New Jersey and California.Trump has signaled since at least April that drug imports would face tariffs. In anticipation, major drugmakers have indicated they have been stockpiling supplies, analysts said. As a result, consumers are unlikely to feel immediate effects even though the tariffs are set to kick in next week. “We think there may have been significant inventory accumulation this year,” Neil Shearing, group chief economist with Capital Economics, said in a note. This summer, Trump placed a maximum 15% tariff on most pharmaceuticals coming in from the European Union, which accounts for 60% of drugs imported by the U.S. E.U. officials believe that this agreement will shield it from the 100% duties, though they said they could not be certain. “This clear all-inclusive 15% tariff ceiling for E.U. exports represents an insurance policy that no higher tariffs will emerge for European economic operators,” a European Commission spokesperson told NBC News on Friday.Ireland’s deputy prime minister, Simon Harris, who also acts as trade minister, said his country is “studying the impact of this announcement” but added that he believed the 15% cap on pharma tariffs remained in place. Ireland alone accounts for 24% of pharma imports to the U.S.Rob WileRob Wile is a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist covering breaking business stories for NBCNews.com.Steve KopackSteve Kopack is a senior reporter at NBC News covering business and the economy.

October 1, 2025

Oct. 1, 2025, 6:00 AM EDTBy Denise ChowIf an asteroid is on a collision course with the moon, what should humanity do? Try to nudge the space rock out of the way before it strikes? Obliterate it with a nuclear explosion?Those are the questions explored in a recent paper from more than a dozen researchers, including several NASA scientists. And they’re not purely hypothetical: An asteroid known as 2024 YR4 is estimated to have a 4% chance of hitting the moon in 2032.Such a cosmic collision could produce debris “up to 1,000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft” in low-Earth orbit, the researchers wrote in the paper, which was uploaded to the preprint website arXiv on Sept. 15 but has yet to be peer-reviewed.To avoid creating that potentially dangerous debris field, one option is to nuke the asteroid, according to the paper — or trigger what the scientists call a “robust disruption” — before it reaches the moon. Cue the “Armageddon” movie references.But using a nuclear explosion to destroy an asteroid has never been tested, so the plan would come with a slew of major risks.Various key characteristics about asteroid 2024 YR4 aren’t known, including its mass, which would be critical in figuring out how to properly “disrupt” it without creating more problems.“If the explosion is not enough, you’re just going to create a debris field anyway,” said Julie Brisset, interim director of the Florida Space Institute, who wasn’t involved with the paper.Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile in December. NASA estimates that it measures up to 220 feet across, large enough to be considered a “city killer” because it could be capable of causing severe damage to a city or region on Earth.Experts initially thought there was a small chance the asteroid could hit our planet, and the probability of such an impact was estimated to be as high as 3% earlier this year. But a collision with Earth was later ruled out.With Earth now thought to be in the clear, asteroid 2024 YR4 has an estimated 4.3% chance of smacking into the moon.The authors of the recent paper suggested launching a mission to conduct reconnaissance of the asteroid, including estimating its mass from up close. After that, they proposed, an explosive device could be built, then deployed to the space rock.Alternatively, if destroying the asteroid with a nuclear explosion is too extreme, the researchers detailed how it could be nudged out of the way.NASA has some experience with that: In a first-of-its-kind test in 2022, its DART probe intentionally crashed into a small space rock known as Dimorphos to alter its trajectory. The maneuver was carried out 6.8 million miles from Earth and changed Dimorphos’ path in space, shortening its orbit by 33 minutes, according to NASA.But a successful deflection would also require knowing the mass of asteroid 2024 YR4, Brisset said.In response to an NBC News inquiry to NASA about the recent paper, Kelly Fast, the agency’s acting planetary defense officer, said in a statement that there are no plans to deflect or otherwise interfere with the asteroid.However, she said there are plans to study it early next year using the James Webb Space Telescope. Any findings could provide better insight into its orbital path.“If observed, the additional data could improve our knowledge of where the asteroid will be in December 2032,” Fast said, “and could drop the impact probability to 0%.”Even if space missions like those described in the paper could be carried out, there would be political considerations to navigate.Although no astronauts or long-term habitats are on the moon, that might not always be the case. China, for instance, has said it aims to land its astronauts on the moon by 2030. Chinese officials have also said the country may build a nuclear plant on the lunar surface to power a moon base that it plans to jointly operate with Russia. The United States plans to launch regular missions to the lunar surface before NASA eventually ventures to Mars. But NASA’s future missions and priorities remain in flux amid significant personnel cuts and President Donald Trump’s budget blueprint for NASA, which proposes slashing more than $6 billion from its budget.Detonating a nuclear device in space could also add tension to the burgeoning space race among the United States, China and other spacefaring countries, with potential conflicts over which countries and space agencies would lead or participate in the project, Brisset said.“It would probably be countries that have the technical capability to do it,” she said, “which maybe narrows it down to three or four, but would they want to work together?”Denise ChowDenise Chow is a science and space reporter for NBC News.

September 27, 2025

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