Nov. 21, 2025, 5:00 AM ESTBy Sahil KapurLAS VEGAS — Matt Payan, who co-owns and operates a rare Hispanic-owned brewery in Nevada, said it was a “very slow, scary summer” for the economy in this city.“As the summer is slowly fading, business is slowly picking up, though, but not as much as we were anticipating compared to last year’s numbers,” he said.Payan said his business avoids politics in the taproom of his North 5th Street Brewing Co. But he said they feel the financial strain of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which have forced the company to scale back canning its own beers, making it harder to distribute the product.“The canning prices went up so high, we can’t keep up with that cost. So unfortunately, we can’t can as much as we really should to keep up with demand,” Payan said, while hoping the tariffs can be reversed to make the finances more manageable.“The cost of living has been a real toll on all of us, including our employees as well. As demand and cost gets higher, our employees need to make more money in order to just survive,” he added. “Also, the average patron that comes in is now dealing with higher cost of living, which mean our regulars tend to shy away, because now they have to save and use their resources for other important needs.”Concerns about the economy and the cost of living and shifts among Latino voters powered Trump to victory in 2024 in Nevada, which flipped to the GOP in a presidential election for the first time in two decades.The economy topped the list of Nevada voter concerns, and those who cited it as the issue that mattered most backed Trump over Kamala Harris by a 3-to-1 margin, according to NBC News exit polls. Latinos, who made up about one-fifth of voters, voted for Trump by 2 points over Harris after Joe Biden carried the group by 26 points in 2020.These dynamics paid dividends for Trump in other battleground states across the country as well, helping him retake the White House.One year later, there are warning signs that Latino voters are souring on the GOP. In two blue-leaning states, Virginia and New Jersey, they voted overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates for governor earlier this month. And recent polling finds deep economic concerns persist among Latino voters in battleground districts ahead of next year’s midterm elections, when control of the House is at stake.The bipartisan Unidos U.S. Latino Vote Initiative poll found that the cost of living and inflation remains by far the top issue for Hispanic voters in battleground districts across six key states. Among these voters, 31% approved of Trump’s job performance while 64% disapproved. And 83% said their current personal financial situation is either “about the same” or “worse,” while 14% said it is “better.”Democrats argue Trump is paying a price for overpromising that he would bring down costs on Day 1 of his presidency.“I think that many voters who trusted in what the president said when he was campaigning feel betrayed by his policies,” said Rep. Steven Horsford, D-Nev., who represents a swing district in the Las Vegas area. “He promised that costs would come down. They’re going up. He said that life would be easier. It’s harder.”Jeff Burton, a lobbyist and longtime strategist for Republican leaders, said Trump and the GOP-controlled Congress have until the end of the first quarter of 2026 to bring prices down.“The American people expected inflation to go down, and costs to go down — and they haven’t,” he said. “If they don’t, then it’s really going to affect the midterms. It’s the No. 1 issue. And the [House] majority is at stake.”Burton said the Treasury Department ought to quickly implement Trump’s “no tax on tips” policy that was included in his so-called “big, beautiful bill” earlier this year, and the president’s team needs to show that it’s delivering. The idea, which Trump embraced in his 2024 campaign, caught Democrats by surprise, and they have since backed versions of it.“The cost of goods, and inflation, is going to determine who’s in the majority next year. Everything else is around the edges,” Burton said, warning that immigration has fizzled as an electoral issue for Republicans and that New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani won’t be the “national super boogeyman that Republicans want” in 2026.Other Republicans counter that the voter shifts in Nevada have been gradual and that the state has moved further toward the GOP overall in every presidential election since 2008. A National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson said its candidates will continue to work to win over Latinos, who could swing crucial House races across the country.“Democrats have ignored Hispanic communities for over a decade while millions of families rejected their radical, socialist agenda. Republicans are working relentlessly to earn Hispanic support by delivering on No Tax on Tips, lowering everyday costs, and protecting the opportunity to achieve the American dream,” NRCC Hispanic press secretary Christian Martinez said in an email.Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., who held her own with Latinos and won re-election in 2024 on the same ballot as Trump, said there’s also a backlash in the community to the president’s aggressive immigration raids.“What I’m hearing from them now is always the same thing: affordability and opportunity, plus what’s happening on immigration — the cruelty, the fear that has spread within the community,” Rosen said in an interview. She added that the one-two punch of tariffs and immigration policies has brought tourism down and is “hurting everyone.”Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., who would face re-election in 2028, said Trump has “done just the opposite” of what he promised in terms of bringing down costs.“You can’t tell people what they’re seeing and feeling at the grocery store is a hoax,” she said.Peter Guzman, the president of Nevada’s Latin Chamber of Commerce, said that overall his member companies feel that the economic situation is about “the same” as it was last year. Concerns linger about prices — fueled by high gas prices and high interest rates — as well as slowing tourism.“Inflation’s got to come down,” he said. “Cost of goods and services — we rely heavily on construction here, and if it costs too much … then we’re not going to have construction and that’s going to have devastating effects on the rest of the economy.”Guzman added that there are some immigration-related concerns in the hospitality industry. “There’s a little bit of a concern with my smaller restaurant owners because they’re seeing less people in the restaurants and more in grocery stories,” he said. “And that could be because of immigration fears.”Guzman said Trump could use his bully pulpit to push the Federal Reserve to keep lowering interest rates. He praised the tax break for tips, saying it should be bigger than the $25,000 deduction under the law — perhaps even unlimited. Workers can deduct up to that amount if they itemize and don’t use the standard deduction.Ted Pappageorge, the secretary treasurer of the influential Culinary Union, which represents hospitality workers who power the Las Vegas economy, said the “concerns about the economy have gotten worse” since Trump took office.“They were real [in 2024], and as I told you last year, Democrats unfortunately were somewhat tone-deaf, and it cost them the election, at least nationally and at the top of the ticket” he said. “The Trump slump is here and happening. The same bad move Biden made with trying to tell people the economy is good — Trump’s doing the same thing.”Still, Pappageorge said he’s dissatisfied with national Democrats and that the party has more work to do to show Nevada voters they’re serious about addressing the costs of housing, health care, groceries and car insurance.“What we’re seeing now is the rebirth of ‘The Great Gatsby’ and the Gilded Age,” Pappageorge said. “The question is: Are the Democrats going to step up to the plate in a clear, coherent message that they’re with us?”Sahil KapurSahil Kapur is a senior national political reporter for NBC News.