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October 28, 2025

Oct. 28, 2025, 5:30 PM EDTBy The Politics DeskWelcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, a newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.In today’s edition, Steve Kornacki explores how Andrew Cuomo could close the gap with Zohran Mamdani in the final week of the NYC mayoral race. Plus, Ben Kamisar digs into how Republicans are shifting more of their ad money down ballot in Virginia. Sign up to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday here.— Adam WollnerWhat Cuomo’s narrow path to a NYC comeback would look likeAnalysis by Steve KornackiThe New York City mayoral election may not be a done deal for Zohran Mamdani. The Democratic nominee has enjoyed sizable leads in polling and benefitted from an opposition that’s been divided among multiple rival candidates. And he remains the favorite to win next Tuesday.But there are signs Mamdani has not put the race away yet, chief among them a new Suffolk University poll that shows his lead over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo slipping to 10 points — half of what it was when the same pollster surveyed voters last month. That tightening comes after Mayor Eric Adams dropped his own re-election bid a few weeks ago, with much of his support now moving to Cuomo.Overall, Mamdani leads with 44% support, with Cuomo at 34% and Republican Curtis Sliwa at 11%, according to the new Suffolk poll. That Mamdani’s support level remains under 50% four months after winning the Democratic nomination suggests some real resistance to his candidacy and leaves him vulnerable to any further consolidation of the opposition. Half of Cuomo’s support, the poll finds, is from voters who say they are simply voting against Mamdani. Sliwa remains adamant that he won’t leave the race, and obviously the more support he retains, the safer Mamdani’s position will be. But there’s risk for Mamdani, a democratic socialist, in the volatility of this final week. The volume of attacks is louder, public scrutiny is heightened, and far more New Yorkers are tuned in to absorb it. Reservations about Mamdani that already exist can be reinforced and new ones can be sown. In this atmosphere, the danger for Mamdani is that voters recognize Cuomo as the only viable alternative and essentially do the consolidating themselves — that is, they shun Sliwa, hold their noses, and check off Cuomo’s name. Extrapolating from pre-Election Day voting data can lead to deceptive conclusions, but it’s at least worth noting that the first few days of early voting in New York City have so far yielded an electorate that is older and broader than what was seen in the June Democratic primary. Any chance for Cuomo depends on this becoming a reality. In the Suffolk poll, he leads with voters over 45 years old and gets clobbered among those under 45. Cuomo himself remains a highly imperfect vehicle for the opposition to Mamdani. He continues to be unpopular, with an upside down 42%/47% favorable rating. If this election is a referendum on him, he will lose, easily. And if he wins, it will be in spite of himself — and only because just enough voters ended up having even deeper reservations about his opponent. Virginia Republicans are spending more on the race for attorney general than for governorBy Ben KamisarIn states with high-profile governor’s races, candidates further down the ballot typically rely on the top of the ticket for a boost.But in Virginia, that dynamic has been flipped on its head in the closing stretch of this year’s campaign, at least on the airwaves. Republicans have spent more on TV ads in recent weeks on the race for attorney general — where past violent text messages by the Democratic nominee have roiled the race — than the higher-profile contest for governor, where the GOP candidate is the underdog. The bulk of Republicans’ ad spending in these two races in the state, where campaign finance rules allow outside groups to donate directly to candidates, have come from Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, the gubernatorial nominee, and Attorney General Jason Miyares.According to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, Earle-Sears’ campaign spent more than $8.1 million on ads in September, compared to about $5.5 million from the Miyares camp. But those numbers flipped in October — $10.2 million from Miyares and $7.5 million from Earle-Sears.A week-by-week analysis of the ad spending in Virginia underscores how GOP spending has jumped in the attorney general’s race in the final month, as Democratic nominee Jay Jones has faced criticism for suggesting in private text messages three years ago that the then-Republican speaker of the state House get “two bullets to the head.”Recent public polling has shown Earle-Sears trailing Spanberger by anywhere from 7 to 12 percentage points, while finding that the two attorney general candidates are locked in a dead heat. Read more from Ben →🗞️ Today’s other top stories🌍 Ceasefire teeters: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered “powerful” airstrikes on Gaza, imperiling the fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire. Read more →➡️ More strikes: The U.S. military carried out three strikes on four vessels in the eastern Pacific Ocean that were allegedly trafficking narcotics, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said. Read more →🇺🇦 Ukraine war update: A recent U.S. intelligence assessment warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is more determined than ever to carry on the war in Ukraine and prevail on the battlefield. Read more →⛔ Shutdown, Day 28: Democratic leaders from 25 states sued the Agriculture Department over the looming suspension of the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, with benefits expected to run dry across the country this weekend. Meanwhile, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., ripped into her party’s shutdown strategy during a heated conference call. 📈 Deportation agenda: The Trump administration is planning to replace some regional ICE leaders with Border Patrol officials in an attempt to intensify its mass deportations effort amid growing frustration with the pace of daily arrests. Read more →📝 The autopen is mightier: The Republican-led House Oversight Committee asserted in a report that some executive actions that then-President Joe Biden signed by autopen, including his pardons, were “illegitimate.” Read more →⚖️ In the courts: Trump’s lawyers have formally appealed his criminal conviction in New York on charges of falsifying business records, saying the case against the president was improperly based on “manufactured felony charges.” Read more →🗳️ Sprint to November: California Attorney General Rob Bonta said that the state will dispatch its own observers to monitor federal election watchers deployed by the Trump administration. Read more →💻 AI watch: Two senators announced bipartisan legislation to crack down on tech companies that make artificial intelligence chatbot companions available to minors. Read more →Follow live politics updates →That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.comAnd if you’re a fan, please share with everyone and anyone. They can sign up here. The Politics Desk

October 1, 2025

Oct. 1, 2025, 9:09 AM EDTBy Steve KopackU.S. companies shed 32,000 jobs in September, according to the payroll processing company ADP, a surprising decline that adds to growing concerns about the rapidly weakening labor market.ADP, which released its monthly private sector employment report Wednesday, was expected by Wall Street to report job growth of 45,000 in the month.The weak labor report comes after some recent economic data — gross domestic product and unemployment claims — offered a slightly more positive outlook for the U.S. economy.“Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said.ADP may be the only jobs data reported this week. The government shutdown, which began Wednesday, means that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is closed and unable to publish the official government jobs report Friday.Companies with fewer than 50 employees were among those hit the hardest in September, with firms employing 20-49 employees shedding 21,000 jobs and those employing fewer than 19 workers losing 19,000 jobs.ADP said the negative number was due in part to recently revised BLS data but “the trend was unchanged; job creation continued to lose momentum across most sectors.” Additionally, “pay gains for job-changers slowed to 6.6% from 7.1% in August.”ADP also revised down August’s employment growth of 54,000 to a loss of 3,000.However, the company said that it found year-over-year pay growth for “job stayers,” or people remaining in their roles for an extended period of time, continued to pace ahead of inflation at 4.5%.Large companies with more than 500 people on their payrolls were the only to see gains, according to ADP’s report.ADP found that the weakest industries for jobs included leisure and hospitality, professional and business services companies, and businesses that conduct financial activities.Trade, transportation and utility companies were also among the hardest-hit sectors.Steve KopackSteve Kopack is a senior reporter at NBC News covering business and the economy.

October 7, 2025

Oct. 7, 2025, 5:37 PM EDTBy The Politics DeskWelcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, a newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.In today’s edition, Steve Kornacki digs into why a blue wave doesn’t appear to be materializing (yet) for Democrats in next year’s midterm elections. Plus, the government shutdown stretches into a 7th day. Sign up to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday here.— Adam WollnerThe signs of a blue wave aren’t there like they were in Trump’s first termAnalysis by Steve KornackiThe blue wave that interrupted President Donald Trump’s first term could be seen coming from far away. This time around, the signs are not so clear.By the fall of 2017, Trump’s first year in office, Democrats had opened a sizable advantage in the generic congressional ballot. On this day in 2017, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average, the Democratic lead was 7.8 points. It’s a margin that would more or less hold over the ensuing year, culminating in a 40-seat gain in the 2018 midterms that gave Democrats control of the House.Today, by contrast, the RCP average has Democrats up by only 3 points in the generic ballot. This comes even as Trump’s overall job approval rating sits in the low- to mid-40s — similar to his first term — and as he continues to accrue negative ratings for his handling of the economy and inflation.Views of Trump’s opposition, though, look very different today than they did eight years ago. In the run-up to the 2018 midterms, Democrats fared consistently — and significantly — better than the Republicans on party image. This time around, it’s a different story.Earlier this year, Democrats registered their lowest positive rating in the history of our NBC News poll, which dates back more than three decades. Similar findings have emerged in other surveys. A significant factor is self-identified Democrats expressing unfavorable views of their own party. This internal frustration — combined with other data that shows these voters want a more confrontational posture from their party’s leaders — helps explain why Democrats in Washington have embraced a government shutdown.This also raises the question of what other new tactical or ideological steps Democratic leaders may take to appease their base — and whether the wider electorate will be receptive to them. In Trump’s first term, independents took a less negative view of Democrats than Republicans. Now, it’s more of a wash.Of course, to win back the House next year, Democrats don’t need a wave; a net gain of just three seats will do the trick. But Republicans may end up effectively raising that number to the high single digits through mid-decade redistricting efforts. Typically, the opposition party can count on a midterm boost by serving as the protest vehicle for whatever dissatisfaction voters want to express with the White House. But in today’s atmosphere of intense polarization, there may be some voters who want to express their displeasure with the opposition party, too.Shutdown, Day 7: Trump dials up the pressure as MTG breaks with her party on ObamacareThe White House raised the stakes of the government shutdown as it entered its seventh day with a draft memo arguing that furloughed federal workers are not entitled to back pay, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told NBC News.The memo, first reported by Axios, comes despite the Office of Personnel Management’s own September guidance, which said federal workers will receive retroactive pay after the shutdown lifts.The memo also clashes with a 2019 law that requires back pay for federal workers. The law, called the Government Employee Fair Treatment Act of 2019, says all federal employees, whether furloughed or deemed essential and working without pay, must receive back pay after a shutdown ends.Asked about the White House’s position on back pay, President Donald Trump told reporters, “I would say it depends on who we’re talking about.” Trump also likened the shutdown to a “kamikaze attack“ by Democrats.The idea of denying back pay prompted some intraparty backlash, with Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., calling it a “horrible message” and a “bad strategy.”Speaking of GOP divisions: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., broke with her party by calling for action on expiring Obamacare subsidies to avoid premium hikes, Sahil Kapur reports. In a long post on X, Greene, the far-right MAGA firebrand, made it clear she was not in Congress when the 2010 law passed.“Let’s just say as nicely as possible, I’m not a fan,” she wrote. “But I’m going to go against everyone on this issue because when the tax credits expire this year my own adult children’s insurance premiums for 2026 are going to DOUBLE, along with all the wonderful families and hard-working people in my district.” “Not a single Republican in leadership talked to us about this or has given us a plan to help Americans deal with their health insurance premiums DOUBLING!!!” Greene added.Asked by our colleague Ryan Nobles about Greene’s comments, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said she doesn’t sit on the committees of jurisdiction and “she’s probably not read in on some of that.” He added that “everybody’s entitled to their opinion,” but “not everyone knows everything.” At the airport: Flight delays across the U.S. stretched into a second day as the Federal Aviation Administration braced for more airport staffing shortages amid the shutdown, Matt Lavietes and Corky Siemaszko write. Maya Rosenberg and Jay Blackman also note that federal funding for air travel in rural areas will run out Sunday if the shutdown continues. In the states: Some governors are drawing on state funds to keep popular national parks open for tourists, Raquel Coronell Uribe reports. 🗞️ Today’s other top stories⚖️ SCOTUS watch: The Supreme Court appeared poised to back a free speech challenge to a Colorado law that bans conversion therapy aimed at young people questioning their sexual orientations or gender identities in a case likely to have national implications. Read more →🪑 On the hot seat: Attorney General Pam Bondi faced questions from senators about National Guard deployments and immigrant arrests in U.S. cities, the indictment of former FBI Director James Comey, and files related to Jeffrey Epstein. Read more →🇨🇦 Oh, Canada: Trump said there’s “mutual love” but “natural conflict” between the U.S. and Canada as he met with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the White House. Read more →📱 Sprint to November: In the final weeks of the Virginia governor’s race, Republican Winsome Earle-Sears is attempting to tie Democrat Abigail Spanberger to the uproar over the violent texts that surfaced from the Democratic nominee for attorney general in the state. Read more →🗳️ If it’s Tuesday: Voters are heading to the polls for a special primary election to fill former Rep. Mark Green’s seat in Tennessee’s deep-red 7th District. Trump stepped in at the last minute with an endorsement of Matt Van Epps, the former commissioner of the state Department of General Services. Read more →➡️ Explainer: Trump suggested numerous times this week that he could invoke the sweeping presidential powers granted by the Insurrection Act “if necessary.” Here’s what that is →That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.comAnd if you’re a fan, please share with everyone and anyone. They can sign up here. The Politics Desk

November 21, 2025

Parts of Texas hit by heavy rain, flash flooding

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