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Savewith a NBCUniversal ProfileCreate your free profile or log in to save this articleSept. 27, 2025, 5:00 AM EDTBy Allan Smith, Sahil Kapur and Shannon PettypieceDemocrats were swept out of power last year as they suffered political pain from rising costs. Now, President Donald Trump is overseeing stubborn inflation, a slowing job market and anxiety over his tariffs, and Democrats are determined to make his party pay the price.With the 2026 midterm cycle on the horizon, the economy is shaping up to once again play a dominant role. Democrats are keenly aware that what sunk them last time could be their ticket back to power.Trump’s own daring promise is complicating the situation for his party after he told voters in 2024, “When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on Day 1.”That’s a message Democrats will be emphasizing.“He’s promised us this golden age. It’s not happening,” said Rep. Don Beyer, D-Va., a member of the U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee. “He promised the renewal of all his manufacturing jobs — not happening. Promised tariffs could restore all this stuff — not happening at all.”Economic anxiety is high. The August jobs report showed only 22,000 new jobs — a paltry total compared to recent years. Prices on a variety of goods and services rose more than expected in August, with year-over-year inflation growing to 2.9%, the highest rate since January.The cost of household staples like coffee and beef are soaring even as the rise in food prices has slowed from the decades-high inflation seen in 2022. Overall, grocery prices were up 2.7% in August compared to a year earlier, the biggest increase in two years. Electricity costs are rising, too, driven in part by the growth of AI data centers. The August NBC News poll found that 45% of voters said rising costs are their top economic concern.Trump has sought to reshape much of the economy, with sweeping tariffs, large tax cuts and pressure on the Federal Reserve and private companies. That formula has coincided with some bright spots Trump and his allies have promoted: The stock market has seen substantial gains, in part because of the AI boom that Trump’s administration has sought to bolster. U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 3.8% annual pace between April and June after shrinking earlier this year, the Department of Commerce said in its second upward revision on Thursday.Yet his opponents say that the president is now trying to shift attention away from the topic. At a White House event on Monday about autism, Trump discouraged reporters from talking about the economy.“Let’s just make it on this subject,” Trump said, referring to the autism announcement. “I’d rather not talk about some nonsense on the economy. I will say this: The economy is unbelievable.”The headwinds have cut into what was long one of Trump’s advantages: Voters trusted him to strengthen the economy. It was a dynamic that helped boost his campaign with voters who were angry with price increases under President Joe Biden and wanted a return to Trump’s pre-Covid economy.Recent polls show voters have soured on Trump’s handling of the economy. A Fox News poll this month found that 52% of voters believe the administration has made the economy worse — the same number who said in January the Biden administration was doing so. Trump’s performance on cost of living was his worst issue, with 67% of voters disapproving. What’s more, 63% disapprove of his handling of tariffs, and 60% of his economic efforts.Now, Democrats are seeking to unify around an economic message they think can bring together their fractured party as they reel from a loss to Trump. But Republicans expressed confidence that once their “big, beautiful bill” starts to sink in, and as uncertainty around tariffs dies down, economic sentiment will turn in their favor.Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, a Democratic Senate candidate, said she’s hearing economic concerns “all over the state right now.”“I’m hearing this most acutely with young people, people who might have recently graduated from college, have degrees, who just cannot find a job right now, and [are] certainly feeling the tightening economy, but also the impacts of AI,” McMorrow said, adding that she is telling people: “This is not a global pandemic that we’re in right now. This is also not a recession like we saw in 2007-09. The inflation that we are seeing right now is entirely man-made, and it’s caused by Donald Trump.”’Waiting and seeing’There are other potential problems for Republicans.Consumer spending is holding steady but being driven by the top 10% of earners. Young men — a population that played a huge role in Trump’s victory — have been hit hard in the slowing job market. Labor Department data showed initial jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 6 jumped by 263,000 — the most since October 2021 — though initial jobless claims fell to 218,000 for the week ending Sept. 20.Americans’ view of capitalism is falling too. A Gallup survey this month showed 54% of Americans hold a positive view of the economic system, the lowest level the poll has recorded.“There is a big cohort of people who voted for Donald Trump because they really, sincerely believed that he was going to bring down the price of their daily necessities,” Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, said. “And almost everything is significantly more expensive.”Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., said it’s too early to grade Republicans’ performance on lowering costs because “the economy doesn’t move on a dime.” But she acknowledged that they need to make tangible progress by the 2026 midterms.“The problem right now is the people who are doing well, the people who are consuming the most, are the very wealthy,” Lummis said. “It is the middle class and lower middle class that is not buying because their salaries aren’t keeping up with inflation or interest rates are too high to buy a home. They’re treading water, and so we have to focus on the middle class in order to alleviate concerns about a bad outcome in the 2026 elections.”The White House argued that the economy is in better shape than other measures indicate, pointing to wage increases, a lower rate of inflation than in Biden’s term, a job market they say favors native-born workers, and surging stocks, among other measures.“Joe Biden’s reckless policies destroyed the economy, but President Trump is fixing it in record time to usher in the Golden Age of America — inflation has cooled, wages are on the rise, real consumer spending rose in July, manufacturing jobs are being reshored, and over half a million good-paying jobs have been created in the private sector,” White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said, adding that Americans “will continue to feel economic relief in the months ahead as … massive tax cuts, deregulation, and energy dominance continue to materialize.”The White House has also highlighted a major revision this month from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showing job growth was much slower than originally reported between April 2024 and March 2025, saying it shows slower job growth dates back to Biden. Trump fired the head of the BLS — and nominated a MAGA ally in her place — after a particularly weak July jobs report.There has been a steep decline in the immigrant workforce under Trump’s aggressive deportation agenda. Vice President JD Vance and other conservatives have said the exodus of foreign-born workers can explain the weaker job growth, but that it creates more employment opportunities for native-born Americans. The Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank, argued Trump’s job market has been worse for U.S.-born workers, pointing to BLS data showing an increased unemployment rate among this group.Jared Bernstein, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under Biden, said he sees the economy “slowing in ways that are concerning” and warned of the potential for stagflation.“Employers and businesses are in a bit of a hiring freeze and investment freeze,” Bernstein said. “They’re sitting on their hands, waiting and seeing what’s going to come of the trade war, the deportations, the chaos, the Federal Reserve badgering, the DOGE cuts. It’s all unsettling for businesses who like a much calmer environment as a backdrop.”Fed cuts interest rates citing “risks” to jobs market01:44In a move Trump long pushed for, the Federal Reserve last week cut interest rates by 0.2 percentage points. In his news conference after lowering interest rates, Fed Chair Jerome Powell tied the cut directly to issues in the labor market.“You see people who are sort of more at the margins, and younger people, minorities are having a hard time finding jobs,” Powell said.He added that the economy is being bolstered by “unusually large amounts of economic activity through the AI build-out and corporate investment.” And he said that while consumer spending numbers exceeded expectations, they appear skewed toward high earners.“So it’s not a bad economy or anything like that,” Powell said, adding: “But from a policy standpoint … of what we’re trying to accomplish, it’s challenging to know what to do.”Trump’s tariffsMuch of the existing economic uncertainty has centered on the president’s tariff agenda. The dust appears to be more settled now: Some tariffs have been lowered, new trade agreements have been reached with key partners, and a number of categories, including some electronics, have been exempted.A White House official said uncertainty on passage of the “big, beautiful bill” and on tariffs has “largely been resolved.”“You can now plan around what the tariff rate is going to be,” this person said. “We’re not in flux anymore.”So far, Trump’s vow to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. has yet to materialize, with industry continuing to cut back on the number of workers. The U.S. lost 12,000 manufacturing jobs in August amid a wider slowdown in the labor market, according to BLS data. The Trump administration has pointed to manufacturing investments, noting factories can’t open overnight.Trump’s tariffs have weighed on manufacturing companies now having to pay tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, along with imported machinery and parts. Companies have also continued to ramp up automation, requiring fewer workers to make the same amount of goods.Federal Reserve data released Sept. 16 showed a mixed picture for the manufacturing sector last month, with factory production ticking up in August after declining in July. The increase was driven by a rebound in auto production while other areas, like companies making machinery and metal products, saw declines.Steve Moore, a senior economic adviser to Trump in his first term, believes the economy is in a good spot, pointing to similar data points as the White House. But he cautioned that “at some point, some of these [tariff] costs are going to be passed down to consumers, no question about it,” though he said the country could still see benefits down the road.There is an economic uncertainty that has the president and his allies concerned: a case before the Supreme Court that could lead to his tariffs being overturned. Moore said the White House is “very keyed into” the case.“I think it’s going to be disruptive,” Moore said if the court overturns the tariffs. “And I don’t think anybody really knows what would happen. Will they have to return the money to the people who paid that? Will they pay the taxes? And what happens to trade deals? It would be havoc.”’You can’t fool people on the economy’Democrats want to frame a straightforward economic argument for the midterm elections: Trump promised to lower prices immediately upon taking office, and yet costs are rising.“What we must do is not just compare this economy to Biden’s,” Beyer said, “but compare it to what Trump said he was going to do.”In a memo marking Trump’s first six months in office, the Democratic National Committee mentioned lowering prices as the top promise Trump had broken upon taking office. A memo this month from the Bipartisan Cost Coalition, an anti-Trump group launched by former aides to Biden and President George W. Bush, said 2026 candidates “can succeed in this environment by having the courage to challenge Trump’s dishonest narratives and draw a line between chaos and the rising cost of living.”Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., said GOP prospects in 2026 will turn on whether they can sell Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” and improve voters’ confidence in their finances.Republicans are eager to promote the bill’s new tax cuts and credits, including tax breaks on overtime and tipped wages as well as expensing and deduction provisions they believe will encourage new investment in the U.S. and grow the job market.“It’s going to depend on whether or not we can actually see the benefits and get the information on the benefits out about what the reconciliation package did,” Rounds said.So far, Trump himself has not taken to the trail to promote the landmark legislation, though Vice President JD Vance has been visiting key battlegrounds to do so.The legislation’s cuts to health insurance programs already threaten hundreds of thousands of jobs. This month, a hospital chain in Virginia announced a consolidation it said is in part necessitated by “the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and the resulting realities for healthcare delivery.”A Republican operative working on Senate races said Trump’s legislative package will give business leaders certainty on taxes over the next few years. But this person was mindful of how the job market looks now, particularly for younger voters struggling to find entry-level jobs.“Trump realizes that you really need to gas this thing up to get people hiring and get confidence in the market,” this person said. “So it’s not an overnight switch that the president could flip to get people hiring young men into the economy.”A Washington Post-Ipsos poll conducted this month found that while just 40% of voters approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, Republicans still held a 7-point edge over Democrats on which party voters trust more on the issue.Pennsylvania’s new Democratic Party Chairman Eugene DePasquale said he wants to get Keystone State Democrats to “focus like a laser” on economic issues.“But it’s one thing to have people be upset about Trump,” DePasquale said. “It’s another thing for them to vote for us. … We’ve also got to show we’re listening and putting real ideas on the table to try to win him back.”Moore said Republicans will need “to remind people of how bad things were under Biden” while framing the president’s signature legislation not as a tax cut but as a job creation bill.“Look, you can’t fool people on the economy,” Moore said. “People know what’s going on. They know what it costs to buy groceries. They know what jobs are available. When Biden was saying, ‘Oh, [inflation is] transitory,’ and so on, it didn’t fool people. So these policies have to be shown to be working.”Allan SmithAllan Smith is a political reporter for NBC News.Sahil KapurSahil Kapur is a senior national political reporter for NBC News.Shannon PettypieceShannon Pettypiece is senior policy reporter for NBC News.

Democrats were swept out of power last year as they suffered political pain from rising costs.

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Sept. 26, 2025, 11:54 PM EDTBy Phil HelselHurricane Humberto grew to a Category 4 storm Friday and is expected to strengthen further, forecasters said, but it is predicted to stay out to sea and far from the U.S. East Coast.The storm, one of two weather systems in the Atlantic, had maximum sustained winds of 145 mph around 11 p.m., the National Hurricane Center said in an update. There were no coastal watches or warnings late Friday. The forecast track shows a predicted path northwest and then north and northeast, passing between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda, according to the hurricane center.Tropical storm moves towards Southeastern U.S.03:07A second disturbance is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm and could affect the U.S. Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 was northwest of Cuba late Friday and was expected to become a tropical storm over the weekend, the hurricane center said.”The system is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it approaches the southeast U.S. coast early next week, where there is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts,” the center said in a forecast discussion late Friday. A tropical storm warning was in place for the Central Bahamas and a tropical storm watch was in place for parts of the northwest Bahamas, the agency said Friday.Maximum sustained winds for that storm were 35 mph Friday night, it said. A tropical storm has sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph.The disturbance could bring up to a foot of rain for eastern Cuba and 4 to 8 inches of rain to the Bahamas.It is forecast to move north next to Florida’s Atlantic coast and toward South Carolina by Monday and Tuesday, according to the hurricane center’s map of its possible track.”There is significantly more uncertainty in the track forecast after day 3, but at the very least it appears that the system will slow down considerably and perhaps even stall near the coast of South Carolina,” the agency said in the forecast discussion.Phil HelselPhil Helsel is a reporter for NBC News.

Hurricane Humberto grew to a Category 4 storm Friday and is expected to strengthen further, forecasters said, but it is predicted to stay out to sea and far from the.

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Sept. 26, 2025, 6:33 PM EDTBy Tim Stelloh and Brenda BreslauerEarlier this year, Daniel Krug was convicted of killing his wife in an insidious murder plot: He stalked her for months, sending increasingly terrifying messages and posing as someone she hadn’t seen in decades — an ex-boyfriend who’d struggled to get over their breakup.A cousin of Kristil Krug’s now believes she might still be alive if communications companies had responded faster to search warrants that eventually provided key evidence to authorities investigating the case. That evidence, which helped identify Krug’s husband as the stalker, didn’t come for weeks, until after Kristil, 43, was fatally struck in the head and stabbed on Dec. 14, 2023, in their suburban Colorado home.In an interview with “Dateline,” the cousin, Rebecca Ivanoff, called on state and federal lawmakers to require companies to respond to stalking-related search warrants within 48 hours.For more on the case, tune in to “The Phantom” on “Dateline” at 9 ET/8 CT tonight.DATELINE FRIDAY SNEAK PEEK: The Phantom01:58“I’m looking at a system here that has a fundamental flaw that we can fix easily,” said Ivanoff, a former prosecutor who specialized in domestic violence cases.Ivanoff pointed to the link between stalking and homicide — researchers have found that victims are significantly more likely to die at the hands of an intimate partner if they’ve been stalked — and called her proposal “homicide prevention.” She described the numerous steps her cousin took to protect herself, including installing security cameras, maintaining a detailed “stalker log” that she provided to law enforcement, and eventually carrying a handgun.Kristil Krug. Courtesy Dateline “Kristil did everything right,” she said. “The system operated as it’s currently designed, and she still got killed.”Emily Tofte Nestaval, executive director of a Colorado-based legal service nonprofit that assisted Kristil’s family, called Ivanoff’s 48-hour response window “more than reasonable.” She said her organization has encountered far too many cases “where a more timely and diligent response from communication providers could have — or would have — been lifesaving, as we believe was true in Ms. Krug’s situation.”The district attorney whose office prosecuted Daniel said it’s critical for companies to respond quickly because “criminals can turn from stalking a victim to killing that victim at any time.”Brian Mason, district attorney for Colorado’s 17th Judicial District, noted that many stalkers leave a digital trail of evidence that can be used to identify suspects and save lives — evidence that can be uncovered through forensic searches of phones and online accounts.“When law enforcement sends subpoenas to tech companies for this evidence, it is imperative that these companies respond in a timely and thorough manner,” he said. “Lives are literally on the line.”In response to questions about how search warrants were processed in Kristil’s case, officials with two of the companies — Verizon and Google — pointed to the many requests they said they receive from law enforcement annually. For Verizon, that number is 325,000, with 75,000 emergency requests, a spokesperson said. The spokesperson said the company typically responds to those requests in the order received and that it generally doesn’t know the nature of the investigations. They prioritize requests that law enforcement considers “emergent,” the spokesperson said.Data from Google shows the company received tens of thousands of warrants just in the second half of 2023. In a statement, Google said it prioritizes its responses based on a variety of factors, including whether law enforcement tells them if the matter is an ongoing emergency.“At Google, we recognize the critical importance of maintaining flexibility in our processes to effectively triage matters based on the individual circumstances, particularly when assessing the presence of an ongoing emergency,” the company said.A third company, TextNow, did not respond to requests for comment.The unnerving messages begin In Kristil’s case, the stalking began 10 weeks before her death. A police report shows the first message arrived Oct. 2 via text: “Hope its OK I looked u up. I go to boulder every few weeks and thought we could hook up. U game?” The author of the note identified himself as “Anthony” — an apparent reference to Jack Anthony Holland, a man Kristil began dating the summer before college. They were together for just over a year, according to a timeline Kristil provided to authorities, and he periodically reached out and expressed what Kristil believed was an interest in getting back together.She married Daniel, a financial analyst with the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, in 2007. They had three children.Kristil and Daniel Krug. Courtesy DatelineKristil didn’t respond to the text, or to a series of increasingly hostile messages the next day, according to the police report. But a few weeks later, the messages continued — and escalated dramatically, the police report shows.One — from an “a.holland” email address — included a vulgar note and a photo of her husband. Others contained sexually explicit photos and appeared to come from people responding to an ad posted on a classified site with Kristil’s phone number. Another message informed her that her license plate was expired. On Nov. 9, a message said: “saw u at dentist.”A few days later, Kristil got a lengthy message that appeared to threaten her husband’s life.“Ill get rid of him and then we can be together,” the text said. “So easy.”In the police report, the detective noted the toll the messages were taking.“Kristil is very fearful for her safety and the safety of her family,” Andrew Martinez wrote. “There is evidence and admission of repeated following and surveillance of her and her immediate family. The recent communication has caused her anxiety, hyper-vigilance, and paranoia.”At the time, authorities still thought of her husband, Daniel, as a possible victim. In a sometimes tearful interview with the detective, Daniel described how the stalking had caused his paranoia and anxiety to surge.“I’m panicking and I’m doing a s— job of protecting my wife,” said Daniel, 44, according to a video of the interview.Kristil — an engineer who had what her cousin described as a “super-analytical mind” — did everything she could to face the situation head-on, her family said.She began documenting the messages in a “stalker log.” She hired a private investigator to track down Holland’s last known address, according to her family. She armed herself and went to the Broomfield Police Department, which dispatched undercover officers to keep an eye out for the stalker. (The effort came up empty.)Although the private investigator had found addresses for Holland in Utah and Idaho, Martinez, the police detective, said he wanted digital evidence proving that Holland was actually behind the messages. If the detective confronted him without that proof, he could “just close the door in our face and that is the end of our case,” Martinez told “Dateline.”So on Nov. 12, Martinez applied for the warrants for Google, TextNow and Verizon that sought information for the phone numbers and email addresses associated with the messages, police records show. They were submitted to the companies five days later. There was a typo in the warrant to Google, so Martinez resubmitted a corrected version on Dec. 6. But as the weeks passed, neither of the other companies responded. And in the days after the corrected warrant was filed, Google did not respond either.That lag wasn’t unusual, Martinez said. “When we serve a search warrant to any major company, unfortunately, it takes time,” he said. “And a lot of times it takes weeks, if not months for some companies.”Following the wrong lead all along On Dec. 6, an email arrived in Kristil’s inbox.“Hey gorgeous i cant visit u no more,” it said, according to a police report. “No more colorado time. My girlfriend dosnt want us talking witout her. She says u will let cops get me aftr u off him but she dont kno u likei do.”Eight days later, Daniel Krug summoned police to the family’s house for a welfare check after he said he’d been unable to reach his wife. An officer found her body in the garage, body camera video shows.An April 1 image of the home in which Kristi Krug was found stabbed and beaten to death in Broomfield, Colo. David Zalubowski / APShe had a substantial head wound and appeared to have been stabbed in the chest.Authorities raced to track Holland down and — with a warrant for his arrest for stalking — they found him at home in Utah on Dec. 14. With help from a Utah sheriff’s office, they quickly concluded that it would have been “physically impossible” for Holland to have been in Colorado at the time of the killing, according to a prosecutor in the case, Kate Armstrong.Holland told “Dateline” that he didn’t think he’d get charged after authorities came to his door because he knew he hadn’t done anything wrong.”I was like, ‘I didn’t do it,'” he recalled telling the officers. “I knew I was OK once the police officers left my house.”At roughly the same time, investigators reached back out to Google, Verizon and TextNow, which still hadn’t responded to the warrants. This time, with the “exigent” circumstances of a homicide linked to the request, they responded within an hour, according to police records.That data revealed the stalker used an IP address “similar” to the government building where Daniel worked, according to police documents. Investigators then confirmed it was linked to a public wi-fi network at Daniel’s office building, the documents state.To Martinez, the revelation was “earth-shattering,” he said. It showed that he’d been on the wrong path the whole time.To Justin Marshall, the lead homicide detective, that evidence could have allowed them to act sooner.“If the information that we learned pursuant to exigency had been made available in mid-November, we would have known that every communication had originated at the same location — Dan’s work address,” he said. “We wouldn’t have been as far behind.” When investigators confronted Daniel with the evidence, he said their new “theory” was wrong and suggested the stalker may have accessed his workplace’s wi-fi, a video of the interview shows. Daniel and Kristil Krug. Courtesy Dateline Authorities came to believe that Daniel had been stalking Kristil — who’d wanted to end their marriage — in an effort to scare her and push her closer to him. He killed her out of fear of being found out, Armstrong, the prosecutor, said.Daniel was arrested two days after his wife’s killing and pleaded not guilty to charges of first-degree murder, stalking and criminal impersonation. Earlier this year, after a roughly two-week trial where his lawyers pointed to the lack of physical evidence and what they described as sloppy police work that failed to keep Kristil safe, he was convicted of all charges and sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole. Pushing for change In the months after the conviction, as Ivanoff processed the evidence presented at her cousin’s murder trial, she said one thing became clear: “We have a system failure that needs to be addressed.” She pointed to how quickly the emergency requests for data associated with the stalker’s devices and email addresses were returned and said it’s clear that the companies can move fast when they want to. Had they moved as quickly as they did after Kristil was killed, she said, perhaps the outcome would have been different.“They could’ve arrested him weeks before she’s killed, and she could’ve safety planned in a way that could’ve saved her life,” she said.Asked about Ivanoff’s claim that Kristil might be alive if the companies had acted faster, Google and TextNow did not respond, while Verizon said in a statement that it was “highly unlikely” that any of its data would have identified the source of the stalking messages.The statement added that the stalking warrant had not been designated as an emergency by law enforcement.Ivanoff said she is in the beginning stages of reaching out to lawmakers, victims’ rights groups and others in her push for swifter response times to search warrants. But she hopes federal lawmakers enact model legislation that states can adopt. The benefit is clear for law enforcement and victims, Ivanoff said, but defense attorneys should also support the change. She recalled that there was an arrest warrant for Holland, who she said could’ve been jailed while authorities awaited the digital evidence.“Think about the innocent person that’s accused having to wait and incur all of the attendant impacts of the full weight of the state’s system being brought to bear on them, losing their liberty, losing their job, losing connections with family, friends,” she said.Ivanoff’s proposal, which she’s calling Kristil’s Law, “is a fight worth taking on,” she said. “If Kristil could, I think, say anything right now, it would be: ‘Get that done.’”If you or someone you know is facing domestic violence, call the National Domestic Violence hotline for help at (800) 799-SAFE (7233), or go to www.thehotline.org for more. States often have domestic violence hotlines as well.Tim StellohTim Stelloh is a breaking news reporter for NBC News Digital.Brenda BreslauerBrenda Breslauer is a producer with the NBC News Investigative Unit.

Kristil Krug’s family believes that if communications companies had responded faster, officials could have identified her husband as the culprit and saved her.

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